GLuck Moscow Cyber Games 2026 Asia Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Rare Atom#105 in the world · win 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vitalem Aerem#180 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheVitalem Aerem ban
60%50%
Rare Atom · 1 mapedge Rare Atom +10%Vitalem Aerem · 0 maps
Dust2Rare Atom ban
50%60%
Rare Atom · 0 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +10%Vitalem Aerem · 1 map
InfernoVitalem Aerem pick
50%60%
Rare Atom · 0 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +10%Vitalem Aerem · 1 map
MirageRare Atom pick
60%50%
Rare Atom · 1 mapedge Rare Atom +10%Vitalem Aerem · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRare Atom remove Dust2
2. BanVitalem Aerem remove Cache
3. PickRare Atom take Mirage
4. PickVitalem Aerem take Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:3
Rare Atom 43%Vitalem Aerem 57%
The model gave 57% on Vitalem Aerem — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
Rare Atom 37%Vitalem Aerem 63%
The model gave 63% on Vitalem Aerem — the map was taken by Vitalem Aerem.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Rare Atom 50%Vitalem Aerem 50%
The model gave 50% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 70%
Series resultRare Atom 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3