ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rare Atom#105 in the world · win 2:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vitalem Aerem#180 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Rare Atom pick
67%50%
Rare Atom · 17 mapsedge Rare Atom +17%Vitalem Aerem · 6 maps
AncientVitalem Aerem pick
50%60%
Rare Atom · 8 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +10%Vitalem Aerem · 6 maps
Infernopossible decider
54%50%
Rare Atom · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Vitalem Aerem · 4 maps
CacheVitalem Aerem ban
71%50%
Rare Atom · 10 mapsedge Rare Atom +21%Vitalem Aerem · 0 maps
MirageVitalem Aerem ban
50%60%
Rare Atom · 6 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +10%Vitalem Aerem · 1 map
AnubisRare Atom ban
57%50%
Rare Atom · 3 mapsedge Rare Atom +7%Vitalem Aerem · 2 maps
NukeRare Atom ban
50%38%
Rare Atom · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +12%Vitalem Aerem · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRare Atom remove Nuke
2. BanVitalem Aerem remove Cache
3. PickRare Atom take Dust2
4. PickVitalem Aerem take Ancient
5. BanVitalem Aerem remove Mirage
6. BanRare Atom remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (54% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
Rare Atom 37%Vitalem Aerem 63%
The model gave 63% on Vitalem Aerem — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Rare Atom 69%Vitalem Aerem 31%
The model gave 69% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Vitalem Aerem.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
Rare Atom 54%Vitalem Aerem 46%
The model gave 54% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 71%
Series resultRare Atom 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3