ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
regain#199 in the world · win 1:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Marca Registradaloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMarca Registrada pick
44%50%
regain · 12 mapsedge Marca Registrada +6%Marca Registrada · 0 maps
Infernoregain pick
50%50%
regain · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Marca Registrada · 0 maps
AncientMarca Registrada ban
62%50%
regain · 9 mapsedge regain +12%Marca Registrada · 0 maps
Dust2regain ban
45%50%
regain · 7 mapsedge Marca Registrada +5%Marca Registrada · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%50%
regain · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Marca Registrada · 0 maps
Anubisregain ban
60%50%
regain · 1 mapedge regain +10%Marca Registrada · 0 maps
CacheMarca Registrada ban
60%50%
regain · 1 mapedge regain +10%Marca Registrada · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Dust2
2. BanMarca Registrada remove Ancient
3. Pickregain take Inferno
4. PickMarca Registrada take Mirage
5. BanMarca Registrada remove Cache
6. Banregain remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed1:0
regain 47%Marca Registrada 53%
The model gave 53% on Marca Registrada — the map was taken by regain.
Model check result
Model favoriteregain · 60%
Series resultregain 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1