NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
regain#162 in the world · win 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NuTorious#204 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageNuTorious pick
43%63%
regain · 10 mapsedge NuTorious +20%NuTorious · 4 maps
Ancientregain pick
44%30%
regain · 5 mapsedge regain +14%NuTorious · 6 maps
Infernoregain ban
44%40%
regain · 5 mapsnearly even +4%NuTorious · 6 maps
Dust2NuTorious ban
56%50%
regain · 5 mapsedge regain +6%NuTorious · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%43%
regain · 1 mapedge regain +17%NuTorious · 3 maps
AnubisNuTorious ban
60%33%
regain · 1 mapedge regain +27%NuTorious · 2 maps
Nukeregain ban
50%40%
regain · 0 mapsedge regain +10%NuTorious · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banregain remove Nuke
2. BanNuTorious remove Dust2
3. Pickregain take Ancient
4. PickNuTorious take Mirage
5. BanNuTorious remove Anubis
6. Banregain remove Inferno
DeciderCache (60% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:16
regain 29%NuTorious 71%
The model gave 71% on NuTorious — the map was taken by NuTorious.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
regain 58%NuTorious 42%
The model gave 58% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Ancientprediction correct19:16
regain 65%NuTorious 35%
The model gave 65% on regain — the map was taken by regain.
Model check result
Model favoriteregain · 58%
Series resultregain 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3