ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Reign Above#247 in the world · win 2:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
F5#133 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
50%50%
Reign Above · 0 mapsnearly even +0%F5 · 2 maps
AncientReign Above ban
50%40%
Reign Above · 0 mapsedge Reign Above +10%F5 · 1 map
DefaultF5 ban
60%50%
Reign Above · 1 mapedge Reign Above +10%F5 · 0 maps
Dust2F5 ban
40%50%
Reign Above · 1 mapedge F5 +10%F5 · 0 maps
MirageReign Above pick
40%50%
Reign Above · 1 mapedge F5 +10%F5 · 0 maps
NukeF5 pick
50%60%
Reign Above · 0 mapsedge F5 +10%F5 · 1 map
OverpassReign Above ban
50%60%
Reign Above · 0 mapsedge F5 +10%F5 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanReign Above remove Overpass
2. BanF5 remove Dust2
3. PickReign Above take Mirage
4. PickF5 take Nuke
5. BanF5 remove Default
6. BanReign Above remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed5:13
Reign Above 53%F5 47%
The model gave 53% on Reign Above — the map was taken by F5.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
Reign Above 57%F5 43%
The model gave 57% on Reign Above — the map was taken by Reign Above.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
Reign Above 50%F5 50%
The model gave 50% on Reign Above — the map was taken by Reign Above.
Model check result
Model favoriteF5 · 63%
Series resultReign Above 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3