ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Revise#160 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fortress#236 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheRevise pick
38%20%
Revise · 4 mapsedge Revise +18%Fortress · 11 maps
MirageFortress ban
56%20%
Revise · 5 mapsedge Revise +36%Fortress · 6 maps
AncientFortress pick
57%36%
Revise · 3 mapsedge Revise +21%Fortress · 7 maps
AnubisRevise ban
50%33%
Revise · 2 mapsedge Revise +17%Fortress · 8 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%27%
Revise · 0 mapsedge Revise +23%Fortress · 7 maps
Dust2Fortress ban
56%40%
Revise · 5 mapsedge Revise +16%Fortress · 1 map
NukeRevise ban
50%30%
Revise · 0 mapsedge Revise +20%Fortress · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRevise remove Nuke
2. BanFortress remove Mirage
3. PickRevise take Cache
4. PickFortress take Ancient
5. BanFortress remove Dust2
6. BanRevise remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (50% / 27%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
Revise 85%Fortress 15%
The model gave 85% on Revise — the map was taken by Revise.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Revise 70%Fortress 30%
The model gave 70% on Revise — the map was taken by Revise.
Model check result
Model favoriteRevise · 61%
Series resultRevise 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2