ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rooster#196 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoLFO 8 pick
50%60%
Rooster · 8 mapsedge LFO 8 +10%LFO 8 · 6 maps
NukeRooster ban
36%40%
Rooster · 7 mapsnearly even -4%LFO 8 · 6 maps
AnubisRooster pick
58%40%
Rooster · 8 mapsedge Rooster +18%LFO 8 · 1 map
Dust2LFO 8 ban
43%50%
Rooster · 3 mapsedge LFO 8 +7%LFO 8 · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
67%50%
Rooster · 2 mapsedge Rooster +17%LFO 8 · 6 maps
MirageLFO 8 ban
44%40%
Rooster · 5 mapsnearly even +4%LFO 8 · 1 map
AncientRooster ban
50%50%
Rooster · 0 mapsnearly even +0%LFO 8 · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRooster remove Ancient
2. BanLFO 8 remove Mirage
3. PickRooster take Anubis
4. PickLFO 8 take Inferno
5. BanLFO 8 remove Dust2
6. BanRooster remove Nuke
DeciderCache (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:8
Rooster 64%LFO 8 36%
The model gave 64% on Rooster — the map was taken by Rooster.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
Rooster 70%LFO 8 30%
The model gave 70% on Rooster — the map was taken by Rooster.
Model check result
Model favoriteRooster · 60%
Series resultRooster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2