Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Illyrians#144 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageIllyrians pick
33%43%
Saint Sinners · 2 mapsedge Illyrians +10%Illyrians · 3 maps
DefaultIllyrians ban
43%40%
Saint Sinners · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Illyrians · 1 map
Dust2Saint Sinners pick
50%33%
Saint Sinners · 2 mapsedge Saint Sinners +17%Illyrians · 2 maps
NukeIllyrians ban
50%50%
Saint Sinners · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Illyrians · 0 maps
AncientSaint Sinners ban
50%60%
Saint Sinners · 2 mapsedge Illyrians +10%Illyrians · 1 map
Anubispossible decider
60%60%
Saint Sinners · 1 mapnearly even +0%Illyrians · 1 map
CacheSaint Sinners ban
40%50%
Saint Sinners · 1 mapedge Illyrians +10%Illyrians · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSaint Sinners remove Cache
2. BanIllyrians remove Nuke
3. PickSaint Sinners take Dust2
4. PickIllyrians take Mirage
5. BanIllyrians remove Default
6. BanSaint Sinners remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
Saint Sinners 37%Illyrians 63%
The model gave 63% on Illyrians — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Saint Sinners 69%Illyrians 31%
The model gave 69% on Saint Sinners — the map was taken by Saint Sinners.
Ancientprediction correct10:13
Saint Sinners 40%Illyrians 60%
The model gave 60% on Illyrians — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Model check result
Model favoriteIllyrians · 51%
Series resultIllyrians 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3