Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO1
result vs prediction
Sangal#48 in the world · loss 6:13series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 6:13
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · win 13:6The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
50%68%
Sangal · 8 mapsedge NAVI Junior +18%NAVI Junior · 21 map
Dust2Sangal ban
36%42%
Sangal · 7 mapsedge NAVI Junior +6%NAVI Junior · 20 maps
AnubisNAVI Junior ban
70%60%
Sangal · 6 mapsedge Sangal +10%NAVI Junior · 16 maps
NukeNAVI Junior ban
79%38%
Sangal · 10 mapsedge Sangal +41%NAVI Junior · 9 maps
AncientSangal ban
56%27%
Sangal · 5 mapsedge Sangal +29%NAVI Junior · 11 maps
CacheNAVI Junior ban
64%33%
Sangal · 10 mapsedge Sangal +31%NAVI Junior · 5 maps
DefaultSangal ban
50%57%
Sangal · 0 mapsedge NAVI Junior +7%NAVI Junior · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSangal remove Dust2
2. BanNAVI Junior remove Cache
3. BanSangal remove Default
4. BanNAVI Junior remove Nuke
5. BanSangal remove Ancient
6. BanNAVI Junior remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (50% / 68%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed6:13
Sangal 61%NAVI Junior 39%
The model gave 61% on Sangal — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Model check result
Model favoriteSangal · 71%
Series resultNAVI Junior 6:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1