Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Sashi#94 in the world · win 2:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vexar#141 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVexar pick
45%48%
Sashi · 7 mapsnearly even -3%Vexar · 17 maps
Nukepossible decider
57%43%
Sashi · 10 mapsedge Sashi +14%Vexar · 10 maps
Dust2Sashi ban
44%50%
Sashi · 12 mapsedge Vexar +6%Vexar · 4 maps
MirageSashi ban
40%57%
Sashi · 1 mapedge Vexar +17%Vexar · 10 maps
AnubisVexar ban
67%33%
Sashi · 5 mapsedge Sashi +34%Vexar · 5 maps
CacheVexar ban
62%50%
Sashi · 9 mapsedge Sashi +12%Vexar · 0 maps
InfernoSashi pick
75%67%
Sashi · 4 mapsedge Sashi +8%Vexar · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSashi remove Mirage
2. BanVexar remove Cache
3. PickSashi take Inferno
4. PickVexar take Ancient
5. BanVexar remove Anubis
6. BanSashi remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (57% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
Sashi 45%Vexar 55%
The model gave 55% on Vexar — the map was taken by Vexar.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
Sashi 67%Vexar 33%
The model gave 67% on Sashi — the map was taken by Sashi.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
Sashi 60%Vexar 40%
The model gave 60% on Sashi — the map was taken by Sashi.
Model check result
Model favoriteSashi · 71%
Series resultSashi 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3