CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
SAW#61 in the world · win 1:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
megoshort#179 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SAW ban
45%43%
SAW · 7 mapsnearly even +2%megoshort · 3 maps
MirageSAW ban
29%38%
SAW · 3 mapsedge megoshort +9%megoshort · 4 maps
InfernoSAW pick
70%50%
SAW · 6 mapsedge SAW +20%megoshort · 0 maps
Ancientmegoshort ban
33%50%
SAW · 5 mapsedge megoshort +17%megoshort · 0 maps
Anubismegoshort pick
43%60%
SAW · 3 mapsedge megoshort +17%megoshort · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
40%29%
SAW · 1 mapedge SAW +11%megoshort · 3 maps
Nukemegoshort ban
33%50%
SAW · 2 mapsedge megoshort +17%megoshort · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSAW remove Mirage
2. Banmegoshort remove Nuke
3. PickSAW take Inferno
4. Pickmegoshort take Anubis
5. Banmegoshort remove Ancient
6. BanSAW remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (40% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
SAW 63%megoshort 37%
The model gave 63% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Model check result
Model favoritemegoshort · 50%
Series resultSAW 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1