CCT 2026 Europe Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
SAW Youngsters#143 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Illyrians#144 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Illyrians ban
45%38%
SAW Youngsters · 18 mapsedge SAW Youngsters +7%Illyrians · 12 maps
MirageIllyrians pick
42%67%
SAW Youngsters · 15 mapsedge Illyrians +25%Illyrians · 14 maps
InfernoSAW Youngsters pick
64%50%
SAW Youngsters · 18 mapsedge SAW Youngsters +14%Illyrians · 2 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%55%
SAW Youngsters · 10 mapsedge Illyrians +5%Illyrians · 7 maps
AnubisSAW Youngsters ban
57%71%
SAW Youngsters · 10 mapsedge Illyrians +14%Illyrians · 3 maps
NukeIllyrians ban
40%40%
SAW Youngsters · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Illyrians · 1 map
CacheSAW Youngsters ban
50%50%
SAW Youngsters · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Illyrians · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSAW Youngsters remove Cache
2. BanIllyrians remove Nuke
3. PickSAW Youngsters take Inferno
4. PickIllyrians take Mirage
5. BanIllyrians remove Dust2
6. BanSAW Youngsters remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (50% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:4
SAW Youngsters 24%Illyrians 76%
The model gave 76% on Illyrians — the map was taken by SAW Youngsters.
Dust2prediction missed17:19
SAW Youngsters 61%Illyrians 39%
The model gave 61% on SAW Youngsters — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Ancientprediction correct3:13
SAW Youngsters 45%Illyrians 55%
The model gave 55% on Illyrians — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Model check result
Model favoriteIllyrians · 51%
Series resultIllyrians 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3