1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
SINNERS#44 in the world · win 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nuclear TigeRES#45 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNuclear TigeRES pick
53%70%
SINNERS · 11 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +17%Nuclear TigeRES · 19 maps
Dust2SINNERS pick
63%39%
SINNERS · 12 mapsedge SINNERS +24%Nuclear TigeRES · 14 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
60%20%
SINNERS · 11 mapsedge SINNERS +40%Nuclear TigeRES · 6 maps
AnubisSINNERS ban
50%55%
SINNERS · 0 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +5%Nuclear TigeRES · 16 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%77%
SINNERS · 6 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +27%Nuclear TigeRES · 9 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
43%47%
SINNERS · 3 mapsnearly even -4%Nuclear TigeRES · 11 maps
CacheSINNERS ban
43%71%
SINNERS · 10 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +28%Nuclear TigeRES · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINNERS remove Anubis
2. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
3. PickSINNERS take Dust2
4. PickNuclear TigeRES take Ancient
5. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
6. BanSINNERS remove Cache
DeciderInferno (50% / 77%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
SINNERS 21%Nuclear TigeRES 79%
The model gave 79% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
SINNERS 75%Nuclear TigeRES 25%
The model gave 75% on SINNERS — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Cacheprediction missed16:13
SINNERS 23%Nuclear TigeRES 77%
The model gave 77% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINNERS · 51%
Series resultSINNERS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3