NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
SINNERS#45 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
QUAZAR#94 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SINNERS pick
64%44%
SINNERS · 18 mapsedge SINNERS +20%QUAZAR · 12 maps
CacheQUAZAR pick
41%63%
SINNERS · 13 mapsedge QUAZAR +22%QUAZAR · 15 maps
Miragepossible decider
53%65%
SINNERS · 13 mapsedge QUAZAR +12%QUAZAR · 13 maps
InfernoQUAZAR ban
40%55%
SINNERS · 11 mapsedge QUAZAR +15%QUAZAR · 7 maps
NukeSINNERS ban
38%59%
SINNERS · 4 mapsedge QUAZAR +21%QUAZAR · 13 maps
AncientQUAZAR ban
56%50%
SINNERS · 14 mapsedge SINNERS +6%QUAZAR · 0 maps
AnubisSINNERS ban
50%50%
SINNERS · 0 mapsnearly even +0%QUAZAR · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINNERS remove Anubis
2. BanQUAZAR remove Ancient
3. PickSINNERS take Dust2
4. PickQUAZAR take Cache
5. BanQUAZAR remove Inferno
6. BanSINNERS remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (53% / 65%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
SINNERS 72%QUAZAR 28%
The model gave 72% on SINNERS — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Cacheprediction missed13:9
SINNERS 27%QUAZAR 73%
The model gave 73% on QUAZAR — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINNERS · 55%
Series resultSINNERS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2