ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
SINQU#217 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeSINQU pick
57%63%
SINQU · 3 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +6%BASEMENT BOYS · 12 maps
AncientBASEMENT BOYS pick
40%53%
SINQU · 1 mapedge BASEMENT BOYS +13%BASEMENT BOYS · 11 maps
Dust2SINQU ban
50%50%
SINQU · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BASEMENT BOYS · 10 maps
MirageSINQU ban
50%57%
SINQU · 0 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%BASEMENT BOYS · 10 maps
Cachepossible decider
43%63%
SINQU · 3 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +20%BASEMENT BOYS · 4 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%40%
SINQU · 1 mapnearly even +0%BASEMENT BOYS · 6 maps
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
50%56%
SINQU · 0 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +6%BASEMENT BOYS · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINQU remove Mirage
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
3. PickSINQU take Nuke
4. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Ancient
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
6. BanSINQU remove Dust2
DeciderCache (43% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct3:13
SINQU 47%BASEMENT BOYS 53%
The model gave 53% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Dust2prediction correct0:13
SINQU 47%BASEMENT BOYS 53%
The model gave 53% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 59%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2