ESN Fall Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Inferno100RA ban
40%40%
Space · 1 mapnearly even +0%100RA · 1 map
NukeSpace ban
40%40%
Space · 1 mapnearly even +0%100RA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpace remove Nuke
2. Ban100RA remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:5
Space 47%100RA 53%
The model gave 53% on 100RA — the map was taken by Space.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
Space 53%100RA 47%
The model gave 53% on Space — the map was taken by 100RA.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
Space 50%100RA 50%
The model gave 50% on Space — the map was taken by Space.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpace · 50%
Series resultSpace 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3