NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · win 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Atreides#147 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Atreides ban
62%33%
SPARTA · 17 mapsedge SPARTA +29%Atreides · 5 maps
MirageAtreides pick
40%80%
SPARTA · 11 mapsedge Atreides +40%Atreides · 11 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
33%58%
SPARTA · 11 mapsedge Atreides +25%Atreides · 8 maps
OverpassSPARTA pick
50%43%
SPARTA · 6 mapsedge SPARTA +7%Atreides · 10 maps
NukeSPARTA ban
46%63%
SPARTA · 9 mapsedge Atreides +17%Atreides · 4 maps
InfernoAtreides ban
40%67%
SPARTA · 6 mapsedge Atreides +27%Atreides · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%44%
SPARTA · 1 mapnearly even -4%Atreides · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
2. BanAtreides remove Dust2
3. PickSPARTA take Overpass
4. PickAtreides take Mirage
5. BanAtreides remove Inferno
6. BanSPARTA remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (40% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
SPARTA 23%Atreides 77%
The model gave 77% on Atreides — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
SPARTA 37%Atreides 63%
The model gave 63% on Atreides — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPARTA · 51%
Series resultSPARTA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2