NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KOLESIE#117 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
62%27%
SPARTA · 17 mapsedge SPARTA +35%KOLESIE · 7 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
33%50%
SPARTA · 11 mapsedge KOLESIE +17%KOLESIE · 8 maps
MirageKOLESIE ban
40%64%
SPARTA · 11 mapsedge KOLESIE +24%KOLESIE · 7 maps
NukeKOLESIE pick
50%67%
SPARTA · 10 mapsedge KOLESIE +17%KOLESIE · 8 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%54%
SPARTA · 6 mapsnearly even -4%KOLESIE · 9 maps
InfernoKOLESIE ban
45%50%
SPARTA · 7 mapsedge KOLESIE +5%KOLESIE · 0 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
50%50%
SPARTA · 0 mapsnearly even +0%KOLESIE · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
2. BanKOLESIE remove Inferno
3. PickSPARTA take Dust2
4. PickKOLESIE take Nuke
5. BanKOLESIE remove Mirage
6. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
DeciderOverpass (50% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
SPARTA 31%KOLESIE 69%
The model gave 69% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
SPARTA 83%KOLESIE 17%
The model gave 83% on SPARTA — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Model check result
Model favoriteKOLESIE · 60%
Series resultKOLESIE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2