NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
56%70%
SPARTA · 5 mapsedge Walczaki +14%Walczaki · 16 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
33%67%
SPARTA · 5 mapsedge Walczaki +34%Walczaki · 11 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
57%60%
SPARTA · 10 mapsnearly even -3%Walczaki · 6 maps
MirageWalczaki ban
40%67%
SPARTA · 6 mapsedge Walczaki +27%Walczaki · 5 maps
InfernoSPARTA pick
50%56%
SPARTA · 4 mapsedge Walczaki +6%Walczaki · 5 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
50%75%
SPARTA · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +25%Walczaki · 8 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%56%
SPARTA · 1 mapedge Walczaki +16%Walczaki · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
2. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
3. PickSPARTA take Inferno
4. PickWalczaki take Nuke
5. BanWalczaki remove Mirage
6. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (40% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
SPARTA 32%Walczaki 68%
The model gave 68% on Walczaki — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
SPARTA 50%Walczaki 50%
The model gave 50% on SPARTA — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Mirageprediction correct3:13
SPARTA 25%Walczaki 75%
The model gave 75% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 68%
Series resultWalczaki 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3