IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spirit#1 in the world · win 2:1series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:1
9z#17 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Spirit pick
73%58%
Spirit · 7 mapsedge Spirit +15%9z · 8 maps
Mirage9z ban
78%40%
Spirit · 5 mapsedge Spirit +38%9z · 6 maps
Ancientpossible decider
75%56%
Spirit · 4 mapsedge Spirit +19%9z · 5 maps
NukeSpirit ban
67%60%
Spirit · 2 mapsedge Spirit +7%9z · 6 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
50%55%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge 9z +5%9z · 7 maps
Overpass9z pick
40%70%
Spirit · 1 mapedge 9z +30%9z · 6 maps
Anubis9z ban
67%40%
Spirit · 2 mapsedge Spirit +27%9z · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit remove Inferno
2. Ban9z remove Anubis
3. PickSpirit take Dust2
4. Pick9z take Overpass
5. Ban9z remove Mirage
6. BanSpirit remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (75% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct12:16
Spirit 20%9z 80%
The model gave 80% on 9z — the map was taken by 9z.
Mirageprediction correct16:13
Spirit 86%9z 14%
The model gave 86% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Dust2prediction correct16:14
Spirit 66%9z 34%
The model gave 66% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 88%
Series resultSpirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3