PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Spirit#1 in the world · win 2:0series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Huns#123 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
DefaultSpirit ban
50%71%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge The Huns +21%The Huns · 3 maps
AncientSpirit pick
50%40%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge Spirit +10%The Huns · 1 map
Dust2The Huns ban
50%40%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge Spirit +10%The Huns · 1 map
MirageThe Huns pick
50%40%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge Spirit +10%The Huns · 1 map
NukeThe Huns ban
50%40%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge Spirit +10%The Huns · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit remove Default
2. BanThe Huns remove Nuke
3. PickSpirit take Ancient
4. PickThe Huns take Mirage
5. BanThe Huns remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
Spirit 63%The Huns 37%
The model gave 63% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
Spirit 57%The Huns 43%
The model gave 57% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 93%
Series resultSpirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2