WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
TDK#86 in the world · win 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BET-M#65 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2TDK pick
80%45%
TDK · 16 mapsedge TDK +35%BET-M · 7 maps
MirageBET-M pick
50%58%
TDK · 12 mapsedge BET-M +8%BET-M · 8 maps
AncientBET-M ban
60%33%
TDK · 11 mapsedge TDK +27%BET-M · 8 maps
OverpassBET-M ban
79%50%
TDK · 15 mapsedge TDK +29%BET-M · 0 maps
InfernoTDK ban
45%36%
TDK · 7 mapsedge TDK +9%BET-M · 7 maps
NukeTDK ban
40%46%
TDK · 1 mapedge BET-M +6%BET-M · 9 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%50%
TDK · 6 mapsnearly even +0%BET-M · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTDK remove Nuke
2. BanBET-M remove Overpass
3. PickTDK take Dust2
4. PickBET-M take Mirage
5. BanBET-M remove Ancient
6. BanTDK remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed16:13
TDK 39%BET-M 61%
The model gave 61% on BET-M — the map was taken by TDK.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
TDK 84%BET-M 16%
The model gave 84% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Model check result
Model favoriteTDK · 75%
Series resultTDK 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2