ESN Fall Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Huns#123 in the world · win 2:1series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:1
5star#35 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Inferno5star pick
25%56%
The Huns · 16 mapsedge 5star +31%5star · 14 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%56%
The Huns · 16 mapsedge 5star +6%5star · 14 maps
AncientThe Huns pick
59%26%
The Huns · 13 mapsedge The Huns +33%5star · 15 maps
Dust25star ban
64%50%
The Huns · 18 mapsedge The Huns +14%5star · 0 maps
Mirage5star ban
40%64%
The Huns · 11 mapsedge 5star +24%5star · 7 maps
CacheThe Huns ban
56%57%
The Huns · 5 mapsnearly even -1%5star · 10 maps
AnubisThe Huns ban
50%75%
The Huns · 0 mapsedge 5star +25%5star · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Huns remove Anubis
2. Ban5star remove Dust2
3. PickThe Huns take Ancient
4. Pick5star take Inferno
5. Ban5star remove Mirage
6. BanThe Huns remove Cache
DeciderNuke (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
The Huns 30%5star 70%
The model gave 70% on 5star — the map was taken by 5star.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
The Huns 19%5star 81%
The model gave 81% on 5star — the map was taken by The Huns.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
The Huns 44%5star 56%
The model gave 56% on 5star — the map was taken by The Huns.
Model check result
Model favorite5star · 82%
Series resultThe Huns 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3