ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Huns#123 in the world · win 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kaleido#154 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
63%64%
The Huns · 15 mapsnearly even -1%Kaleido · 10 maps
AncientKaleido pick
50%61%
The Huns · 8 mapsedge Kaleido +11%Kaleido · 14 maps
InfernoKaleido ban
24%42%
The Huns · 13 mapsedge Kaleido +18%Kaleido · 8 maps
NukeThe Huns pick
56%57%
The Huns · 14 mapsnearly even -1%Kaleido · 3 maps
MirageThe Huns ban
27%50%
The Huns · 7 mapsedge Kaleido +23%Kaleido · 4 maps
CacheKaleido ban
56%25%
The Huns · 5 mapsedge The Huns +31%Kaleido · 4 maps
AnubisThe Huns ban
50%33%
The Huns · 0 mapsedge The Huns +17%Kaleido · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Huns remove Anubis
2. BanKaleido remove Cache
3. PickThe Huns take Nuke
4. PickKaleido take Ancient
5. BanKaleido remove Inferno
6. BanThe Huns remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (63% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct3:13
The Huns 46%Kaleido 54%
The model gave 54% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
The Huns 30%Kaleido 70%
The model gave 70% on Kaleido — the map was taken by The Huns.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
The Huns 39%Kaleido 61%
The model gave 61% on Kaleido — the map was taken by The Huns.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Huns · 51%
Series resultThe Huns 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3