ESL Challenger League Season 51 Asia-Pacific Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
The QUBE#163 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rare Atom#98 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Rare Atom pick
50%71%
The QUBE · 2 mapsedge Rare Atom +21%Rare Atom · 3 maps
MirageThe QUBE pick
33%40%
The QUBE · 2 mapsedge Rare Atom +7%Rare Atom · 1 map
DefaultThe QUBE ban
60%60%
The QUBE · 1 mapnearly even +0%Rare Atom · 1 map
InfernoRare Atom ban
50%50%
The QUBE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Rare Atom · 2 maps
AncientRare Atom ban
60%50%
The QUBE · 1 mapedge The QUBE +10%Rare Atom · 0 maps
AnubisThe QUBE ban
50%40%
The QUBE · 0 mapsedge The QUBE +10%Rare Atom · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe QUBE remove Anubis
2. BanRare Atom remove Ancient
3. PickThe QUBE take Mirage
4. PickRare Atom take Dust2
5. BanRare Atom remove Inferno
6. BanThe QUBE remove Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed4:13
The QUBE 63%Rare Atom 37%
The model gave 63% on The QUBE — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
The QUBE 47%Rare Atom 53%
The model gave 53% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 65%
Series resultRare Atom 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2