WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
TokyoSavageloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2TokyoSavage pick
40%40%
TokyoSavage · 1 mapnearly even +0%beznegativa · 1 map
CacheTokyoSavage ban
50%40%
TokyoSavage · 0 mapsedge TokyoSavage +10%beznegativa · 1 map
Nukebeznegativa ban
40%50%
TokyoSavage · 1 mapedge beznegativa +10%beznegativa · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTokyoSavage remove Cache
2. Banbeznegativa remove Nuke
3. PickTokyoSavage take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed2:13
TokyoSavage 53%beznegativa 47%
The model gave 53% on TokyoSavage — the map was taken by beznegativa.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
TokyoSavage 47%beznegativa 53%
The model gave 53% on beznegativa — the map was taken by beznegativa.
Model check result
Model favoriteTokyoSavage · 50%
Series resultbeznegativa 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2