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ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Turma do Pagode#91 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ALKA#129 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ALKA pick
40%61%
Turma do Pagode · 1 mapedge ALKA +21%ALKA · 14 maps
Ancientpossible decider
40%50%
Turma do Pagode · 1 mapedge ALKA +10%ALKA · 12 maps
InfernoALKA ban
50%64%
Turma do Pagode · 0 mapsedge ALKA +14%ALKA · 7 maps
MirageTurma do Pagode ban
50%55%
Turma do Pagode · 0 mapsedge ALKA +5%ALKA · 7 maps
NukeALKA ban
50%55%
Turma do Pagode · 0 mapsedge ALKA +5%ALKA · 7 maps
CacheTurma do Pagode ban
50%56%
Turma do Pagode · 0 mapsedge ALKA +6%ALKA · 5 maps
DefaultTurma do Pagode pick
50%40%
Turma do Pagode · 0 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +10%ALKA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTurma do Pagode remove Mirage
2. BanALKA remove Nuke
3. PickTurma do Pagode take Default
4. PickALKA take Dust2
5. BanALKA remove Inferno
6. BanTurma do Pagode remove Cache
DeciderAncient (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
Turma do Pagode 37%ALKA 63%
The model gave 63% on ALKA — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
Turma do Pagode 39%ALKA 61%
The model gave 61% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
Turma do Pagode 30%ALKA 70%
The model gave 70% on ALKA — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Model check result
Model favoriteALKA · 66%
Series resultTurma do Pagode 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3