FRAG University 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Unreal Nightmare#382 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Without a Roof#81 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageWithout a Roof pick
43%65%
Unreal Nightmare · 3 mapsedge Without a Roof +22%Without a Roof · 19 maps
InfernoUnreal Nightmare pick
57%70%
Unreal Nightmare · 3 mapsedge Without a Roof +13%Without a Roof · 16 maps
AncientUnreal Nightmare ban
50%56%
Unreal Nightmare · 4 mapsedge Without a Roof +6%Without a Roof · 14 maps
Dust2Unreal Nightmare ban
50%53%
Unreal Nightmare · 0 mapsnearly even -3%Without a Roof · 11 maps
NukeWithout a Roof ban
33%58%
Unreal Nightmare · 2 mapsedge Without a Roof +25%Without a Roof · 8 maps
CacheWithout a Roof ban
40%57%
Unreal Nightmare · 1 mapedge Without a Roof +17%Without a Roof · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%40%
Unreal Nightmare · 1 mapnearly even +0%Without a Roof · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUnreal Nightmare remove Dust2
2. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
3. PickUnreal Nightmare take Inferno
4. PickWithout a Roof take Mirage
5. BanWithout a Roof remove Cache
6. BanUnreal Nightmare remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (40% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct6:13
Unreal Nightmare 44%Without a Roof 56%
The model gave 56% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Infernoprediction correct2:13
Unreal Nightmare 39%Without a Roof 61%
The model gave 61% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteWithout a Roof · 81%
Series resultWithout a Roof 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2