NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
UPGRADE#64 in the world · win 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HYPERSPIRIT#147 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HYPERSPIRIT pick
40%50%
UPGRADE · 1 mapedge HYPERSPIRIT +10%HYPERSPIRIT · 12 maps
AnubisHYPERSPIRIT ban
67%36%
UPGRADE · 2 mapsedge UPGRADE +31%HYPERSPIRIT · 7 maps
InfernoUPGRADE ban
50%50%
UPGRADE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%HYPERSPIRIT · 8 maps
CacheUPGRADE ban
40%60%
UPGRADE · 1 mapedge HYPERSPIRIT +20%HYPERSPIRIT · 6 maps
MirageHYPERSPIRIT ban
50%45%
UPGRADE · 0 mapsedge UPGRADE +5%HYPERSPIRIT · 7 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%63%
UPGRADE · 1 mapnearly even -3%HYPERSPIRIT · 4 maps
AncientUPGRADE pick
50%50%
UPGRADE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%HYPERSPIRIT · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUPGRADE remove Inferno
2. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Anubis
3. PickUPGRADE take Ancient
4. PickHYPERSPIRIT take Dust2
5. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Mirage
6. BanUPGRADE remove Cache
DeciderDefault (60% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:7
UPGRADE 47%HYPERSPIRIT 53%
The model gave 53% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
UPGRADE 53%HYPERSPIRIT 47%
The model gave 53% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Model check result
Model favoriteUPGRADE · 51%
Series resultUPGRADE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2