WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
UPGRADE#64 in the world · win 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Anubiskrytiepacani ban
60%50%
UPGRADE · 16 mapsedge UPGRADE +10%krytiepacani · 0 maps
Dust2krytiepacani pick
46%67%
UPGRADE · 9 mapsedge krytiepacani +21%krytiepacani · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
42%40%
UPGRADE · 8 mapsnearly even +2%krytiepacani · 1 map
AncientUPGRADE pick
67%60%
UPGRADE · 5 mapsedge UPGRADE +7%krytiepacani · 1 map
InfernoUPGRADE ban
57%50%
UPGRADE · 3 mapsedge UPGRADE +7%krytiepacani · 2 maps
CacheUPGRADE ban
38%50%
UPGRADE · 4 mapsedge krytiepacani +12%krytiepacani · 0 maps
Miragekrytiepacani ban
38%50%
UPGRADE · 4 mapsedge krytiepacani +12%krytiepacani · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUPGRADE remove Cache
2. Bankrytiepacani remove Anubis
3. PickUPGRADE take Ancient
4. Pickkrytiepacani take Dust2
5. Bankrytiepacani remove Mirage
6. BanUPGRADE remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (42% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
UPGRADE 28%krytiepacani 72%
The model gave 72% on krytiepacani — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
UPGRADE 60%krytiepacani 40%
The model gave 60% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Model check result
Model favoriteUPGRADE · 73%
Series resultUPGRADE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2