ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vitality#2 in the world · win 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1win#33 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Vitality pick
71%58%
Vitality · 10 mapsedge Vitality +13%1win · 27 maps
Mirage1win pick
55%61%
Vitality · 7 mapsedge 1win +6%1win · 14 maps
AnubisVitality ban
45%35%
Vitality · 7 mapsedge Vitality +10%1win · 13 maps
AncientVitality ban
50%59%
Vitality · 0 mapsedge 1win +9%1win · 18 maps
Cachepossible decider
67%57%
Vitality · 5 mapsedge Vitality +10%1win · 10 maps
Inferno1win ban
50%63%
Vitality · 4 mapsedge 1win +13%1win · 4 maps
Nuke1win ban
55%50%
Vitality · 7 mapsedge Vitality +5%1win · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVitality remove Ancient
2. Ban1win remove Nuke
3. PickVitality take Dust2
4. Pick1win take Mirage
5. Ban1win remove Inferno
6. BanVitality remove Anubis
DeciderCache (67% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:1
Vitality 62%1win 38%
The model gave 62% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Cacheprediction correct13:5
Vitality 63%1win 37%
The model gave 63% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Model check result
Model favoriteVitality · 92%
Series resultVitality 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2