ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Voca#92 in the world · win 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zomblers#192 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Zomblers ban
50%40%
Voca · 2 mapsedge Voca +10%Zomblers · 1 map
OverpassVoca pick
43%50%
Voca · 3 mapsedge Zomblers +7%Zomblers · 0 maps
AncientZomblers pick
60%60%
Voca · 1 mapnearly even +0%Zomblers · 1 map
DefaultZomblers ban
60%60%
Voca · 1 mapnearly even +0%Zomblers · 1 map
MirageVoca ban
40%60%
Voca · 1 mapedge Zomblers +20%Zomblers · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVoca remove Mirage
2. BanZomblers remove Dust2
3. PickVoca take Overpass
4. PickZomblers take Ancient
5. BanZomblers remove Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Voca 57%Zomblers 43%
The model gave 57% on Voca — the map was taken by Voca.
Overpassprediction missed13:8
Voca 46%Zomblers 54%
The model gave 54% on Zomblers — the map was taken by Voca.
Model check result
Model favoriteVoca · 79%
Series resultVoca 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2