Tipsport Conquest of Prague 2026 Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#149 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Alliance#22 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
58%43%
Walczaki · 20 mapsedge Walczaki +15%Alliance · 3 maps
AncientAlliance ban
69%33%
Walczaki · 12 mapsedge Walczaki +36%Alliance · 2 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
58%57%
Walczaki · 8 mapsnearly even +1%Alliance · 3 maps
Anubispossible decider
75%40%
Walczaki · 8 mapsedge Walczaki +35%Alliance · 1 map
InfernoWalczaki ban
55%50%
Walczaki · 7 mapsedge Walczaki +5%Alliance · 2 maps
MirageAlliance ban
73%50%
Walczaki · 7 mapsedge Walczaki +23%Alliance · 0 maps
DefaultAlliance pick
56%50%
Walczaki · 5 mapsedge Walczaki +6%Alliance · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
2. BanAlliance remove Mirage
3. PickWalczaki take Nuke
4. PickAlliance take Default
5. BanAlliance remove Ancient
6. BanWalczaki remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (75% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
Walczaki 68%Alliance 32%
The model gave 68% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Alliance.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
Walczaki 52%Alliance 48%
The model gave 52% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Alliance.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 70%
Series resultAlliance 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2