BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#149 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ASTRAL#97 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
67%50%
Walczaki · 5 mapsedge Walczaki +17%ASTRAL · 0 maps
AnubisASTRAL ban
57%50%
Walczaki · 3 mapsedge Walczaki +7%ASTRAL · 0 maps
DefaultASTRAL pick
50%50%
Walczaki · 2 mapsnearly even +0%ASTRAL · 0 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
67%50%
Walczaki · 2 mapsedge Walczaki +17%ASTRAL · 0 maps
AncientWalczaki ban
60%50%
Walczaki · 1 mapedge Walczaki +10%ASTRAL · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Ancient
2. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
3. PickWalczaki take Nuke
4. PickASTRAL take Default
5. BanASTRAL remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
Walczaki 53%ASTRAL 47%
The model gave 53% on Walczaki — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Ancientprediction missed4:13
Walczaki 57%ASTRAL 43%
The model gave 57% on Walczaki — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 60%
Series resultASTRAL 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2