NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BET-M#62 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisWalczaki pick
60%56%
Walczaki · 16 mapsnearly even +4%BET-M · 5 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
31%38%
Walczaki · 9 mapsedge BET-M +7%BET-M · 12 maps
InfernoBET-M pick
54%54%
Walczaki · 9 mapsnearly even +0%BET-M · 9 maps
Nukepossible decider
53%55%
Walczaki · 11 mapsnearly even -2%BET-M · 7 maps
MirageWalczaki ban
50%45%
Walczaki · 6 mapsedge Walczaki +5%BET-M · 7 maps
AncientBET-M ban
55%22%
Walczaki · 7 mapsedge Walczaki +33%BET-M · 5 maps
CacheBET-M ban
36%50%
Walczaki · 7 mapsedge BET-M +14%BET-M · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
2. BanBET-M remove Ancient
3. PickWalczaki take Anubis
4. PickBET-M take Inferno
5. BanBET-M remove Cache
6. BanWalczaki remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (53% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct4:13
Walczaki 47%BET-M 53%
The model gave 53% on BET-M — the map was taken by BET-M.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
Walczaki 83%BET-M 17%
The model gave 83% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Nukeprediction missed16:13
Walczaki 49%BET-M 51%
The model gave 51% on BET-M — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 67%
Series resultWalczaki 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3