NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 2:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
KOLESIE#117 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
56%63%
Walczaki · 21 mapedge KOLESIE +7%KOLESIE · 4 maps
Ancientpossible decider
69%44%
Walczaki · 12 mapsedge Walczaki +25%KOLESIE · 5 maps
AnubisKOLESIE ban
75%38%
Walczaki · 8 mapsedge Walczaki +37%KOLESIE · 4 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
58%38%
Walczaki · 8 mapsedge Walczaki +20%KOLESIE · 4 maps
MirageKOLESIE pick
73%63%
Walczaki · 7 mapsedge Walczaki +10%KOLESIE · 4 maps
OverpassWalczaki ban
33%55%
Walczaki · 2 mapsedge KOLESIE +22%KOLESIE · 7 maps
InfernoKOLESIE ban
50%50%
Walczaki · 8 mapsnearly even +0%KOLESIE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Overpass
2. BanKOLESIE remove Inferno
3. PickWalczaki take Nuke
4. PickKOLESIE take Mirage
5. BanKOLESIE remove Anubis
6. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (69% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct19:16
Walczaki 67%KOLESIE 33%
The model gave 67% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Ancientprediction missed13:16
Walczaki 76%KOLESIE 24%
The model gave 76% on Walczaki — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
Walczaki 43%KOLESIE 57%
The model gave 57% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 65%
Series resultWalczaki 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3