European Pro League Series 7 · BO5
result vs prediction
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 3:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 3:2
KOLESIE#117 in the world · loss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
62%64%
Walczaki · 25 mapsnearly even -2%KOLESIE · 18 maps
Dust2possible decider
47%35%
Walczaki · 15 mapsedge Walczaki +12%KOLESIE · 13 maps
AncientWalczaki pick
63%44%
Walczaki · 15 mapsedge Walczaki +19%KOLESIE · 12 maps
AnubisKOLESIE pick
71%50%
Walczaki · 13 mapsedge Walczaki +21%KOLESIE · 8 maps
MirageKOLESIE pick
75%67%
Walczaki · 8 mapsedge Walczaki +8%KOLESIE · 11 maps
OverpassWalczaki ban
33%60%
Walczaki · 2 mapsedge KOLESIE +27%KOLESIE · 11 maps
InfernoKOLESIE ban
60%50%
Walczaki · 11 mapsedge Walczaki +10%KOLESIE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Overpass
2. BanKOLESIE remove Inferno
3. PickWalczaki take Nuke
4. PickKOLESIE take Mirage
5. PickWalczaki take Ancient
6. PickKOLESIE take Anubis
DeciderDust2 (47% / 35%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed16:19
Walczaki 73%KOLESIE 27%
The model gave 73% on Walczaki — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
Walczaki 59%KOLESIE 41%
The model gave 59% on Walczaki — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
Walczaki 51%KOLESIE 49%
The model gave 51% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Mirageprediction correct13:5
Walczaki 57%KOLESIE 43%
The model gave 57% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Ancientprediction correct16:12
Walczaki 69%KOLESIE 31%
The model gave 69% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 70%
Series resultWalczaki 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 5