Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
WBT#91 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nexus#146 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisWBT pick
52%53%
WBT · 19 mapsnearly even -1%Nexus · 13 maps
Dust2possible decider
59%50%
WBT · 13 mapsedge WBT +9%Nexus · 12 maps
AncientNexus pick
56%70%
WBT · 12 mapsedge Nexus +14%Nexus · 6 maps
CacheWBT ban
31%46%
WBT · 9 mapsedge Nexus +15%Nexus · 9 maps
MirageNexus ban
50%60%
WBT · 10 mapsedge Nexus +10%Nexus · 6 maps
NukeNexus ban
57%40%
WBT · 10 mapsedge WBT +17%Nexus · 1 map
InfernoWBT ban
50%44%
WBT · 2 mapsedge WBT +6%Nexus · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWBT remove Inferno
2. BanNexus remove Nuke
3. PickWBT take Anubis
4. PickNexus take Ancient
5. BanNexus remove Mirage
6. BanWBT remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (59% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
WBT 33%Nexus 67%
The model gave 67% on Nexus — the map was taken by Nexus.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
WBT 62%Nexus 38%
The model gave 62% on WBT — the map was taken by WBT.
Anubisprediction correct7:13
WBT 49%Nexus 51%
The model gave 51% on Nexus — the map was taken by Nexus.
Model check result
Model favoriteWBT · 69%
Series resultNexus 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3