Stake Ranked Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard#46 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gentle Mates#38 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeGentle Mates ban
75%38%
Wildcard · 4 mapsedge Wildcard +37%Gentle Mates · 12 maps
InfernoGentle Mates pick
50%60%
Wildcard · 4 mapsedge Gentle Mates +10%Gentle Mates · 11 maps
MirageWildcard pick
71%54%
Wildcard · 3 mapsedge Wildcard +17%Gentle Mates · 9 maps
AncientWildcard ban
50%71%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge Gentle Mates +21%Gentle Mates · 10 maps
Dust2Gentle Mates ban
62%50%
Wildcard · 9 mapsedge Wildcard +12%Gentle Mates · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
57%57%
Wildcard · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Gentle Mates · 3 maps
AnubisWildcard ban
50%50%
Wildcard · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Gentle Mates · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWildcard remove Ancient
2. BanGentle Mates remove Dust2
3. PickWildcard take Mirage
4. PickGentle Mates take Inferno
5. BanGentle Mates remove Nuke
6. BanWildcard remove Anubis
DeciderOverpass (57% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
Wildcard 37%Gentle Mates 63%
The model gave 63% on Gentle Mates — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
Wildcard 85%Gentle Mates 15%
The model gave 85% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard · 52%
Series resultGentle Mates 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2