NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
WW#123 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2WW pick
50%64%
WW · 16 mapsedge Color +14%Color · 18 maps
MirageColor pick
56%75%
WW · 12 mapsedge Color +19%Color · 12 maps
AncientWW ban
44%62%
WW · 5 mapsedge Color +18%Color · 9 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%58%
WW · 6 mapsedge Color +8%Color · 8 maps
CacheColor ban
44%36%
WW · 5 mapsedge WW +8%Color · 7 maps
InfernoWW ban
60%55%
WW · 1 mapedge WW +5%Color · 7 maps
NukeColor ban
56%50%
WW · 5 mapsedge WW +6%Color · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWW remove Ancient
2. BanColor remove Nuke
3. PickWW take Dust2
4. PickColor take Mirage
5. BanColor remove Cache
6. BanWW remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (50% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
WW 34%Color 66%
The model gave 66% on Color — the map was taken by Color.
Mirageprediction correct14:16
WW 33%Color 67%
The model gave 67% on Color — the map was taken by Color.
Model check result
Model favoriteColor · 63%
Series resultColor 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2