ESEA Open Season 58 Asia · BO3
result vs prediction
XDM#222 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MiragePATSANVISION ban
29%40%
XDM · 3 mapsedge PATSANVISION +11%PATSANVISION · 1 map
NukeXDM ban
57%60%
XDM · 3 mapsnearly even -3%PATSANVISION · 1 map
AncientPATSANVISION ban
57%50%
XDM · 3 mapsedge XDM +7%PATSANVISION · 0 maps
InfernoXDM pick
57%50%
XDM · 3 mapsedge XDM +7%PATSANVISION · 0 maps
Dust2PATSANVISION pick
50%50%
XDM · 0 mapsnearly even +0%PATSANVISION · 2 maps
CacheXDM ban
40%50%
XDM · 1 mapedge PATSANVISION +10%PATSANVISION · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanXDM remove Cache
2. BanPATSANVISION remove Ancient
3. PickXDM take Inferno
4. PickPATSANVISION take Dust2
5. BanPATSANVISION remove Mirage
6. BanXDM remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:8
XDM 60%PATSANVISION 40%
The model gave 60% on XDM — the map was taken by XDM.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
XDM 47%PATSANVISION 53%
The model gave 53% on PATSANVISION — the map was taken by PATSANVISION.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
XDM 37%PATSANVISION 63%
The model gave 63% on PATSANVISION — the map was taken by PATSANVISION.
Model check result
Model favoriteXDM · 53%
Series resultPATSANVISION 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3