5EPlay Professional Challenge Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
XDM#222 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Pressure Monsterswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoPressure Monsters ban
60%50%
XDM · 6 mapsedge XDM +10%Pressure Monsters · 0 maps
MiragePressure Monsters pick
33%50%
XDM · 5 mapsedge Pressure Monsters +17%Pressure Monsters · 0 maps
AncientPressure Monsters ban
50%50%
XDM · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Pressure Monsters · 0 maps
Dust2XDM ban
38%50%
XDM · 4 mapsedge Pressure Monsters +12%Pressure Monsters · 0 maps
NukeXDM pick
57%50%
XDM · 3 mapsedge XDM +7%Pressure Monsters · 0 maps
CacheXDM ban
40%50%
XDM · 1 mapedge Pressure Monsters +10%Pressure Monsters · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanXDM remove Cache
2. BanPressure Monsters remove Inferno
3. PickXDM take Nuke
4. PickPressure Monsters take Mirage
5. BanPressure Monsters remove Ancient
6. BanXDM remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
XDM 36%Pressure Monsters 64%
The model gave 64% on Pressure Monsters — the map was taken by Pressure Monsters.
Cacheprediction correct12:16
XDM 37%Pressure Monsters 63%
The model gave 63% on Pressure Monsters — the map was taken by Pressure Monsters.
Model check result
Model favoriteXDM · 53%
Series resultPressure Monsters 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2