ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
XI#239 in the world · win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoXI ban
40%50%
XI · 1 mapedge LFO 6 +10%LFO 6 · 0 maps
NukeLFO 6 ban
40%50%
XI · 1 mapedge LFO 6 +10%LFO 6 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanXI remove Inferno
2. BanLFO 6 remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
XI 53%LFO 6 47%
The model gave 53% on XI — the map was taken by XI.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
XI 47%LFO 6 53%
The model gave 53% on LFO 6 — the map was taken by XI.
Model check result
Model favoriteXI · 59%
Series resultXI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2