PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 South America Open Qualifier 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yawara#178 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Turma do Pagodewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageYawara pick
53%60%
Yawara · 15 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +7%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
AncientTurma do Pagode pick
43%67%
Yawara · 10 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +24%Turma do Pagode · 5 maps
Dust2possible decider
57%50%
Yawara · 10 mapsedge Yawara +7%Turma do Pagode · 4 maps
AnubisYawara ban
44%40%
Yawara · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
InfernoTurma do Pagode ban
57%33%
Yawara · 3 mapsedge Yawara +24%Turma do Pagode · 2 maps
CacheYawara ban
33%50%
Yawara · 2 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +17%Turma do Pagode · 0 maps
DefaultTurma do Pagode ban
60%40%
Yawara · 1 mapedge Yawara +20%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanYawara remove Cache
2. BanTurma do Pagode remove Inferno
3. PickYawara take Mirage
4. PickTurma do Pagode take Ancient
5. BanTurma do Pagode remove Default
6. BanYawara remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct9:13
Yawara 36%Turma do Pagode 64%
The model gave 64% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Ancientprediction missed16:14
Yawara 25%Turma do Pagode 75%
The model gave 75% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by Yawara.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
Yawara 57%Turma do Pagode 43%
The model gave 57% on Yawara — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Model check result
Model favoriteYawara · 67%
Series resultTurma do Pagode 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3