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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
+4918u
ROI
+11.9%
win rate
54%
bets
253
drawdown
68.9%
payouts
4
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

10% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 4profit withdrawn+150u
period 3profit withdrawn+5103u
period 2top-up-271u
period 1top-up-65u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
10% of bankroll25354%+4918+11.9%68.9%Select
5% of bankroll25354%+1879+11.9%38.1%Select
Martingale25354%+1441+16.3%56.9%Select
2% of bankroll25354%+646+11.7%16.6%Select
1% of bankroll25354%+309+11.7%8.6%Select
Flat (10 units)25354%+296+11.7%8.3%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 253, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26OG – MetizportMetizport1.95105won+1005918
20.08.26LPH – WBTLPH2.00117lost-1175818
20.08.26Natus Vincere – LegacyLegacy1.90107won+965935
20.08.26Lavked – UNiTYLavked1.93119lost-1195838
19.08.26HYPERSPIRIT – PermittaPermitta2.01132lost-1325957
18.08.26ENCE – Mai TaiMai Tai2.46147lost-1476089
17.08.26Revise – FORZE ReloadFORZE Reload1.97163lost-1636236
17.08.26benched gods – Phantom Academybenched gods2.03148won+1526400
16.08.26Mai Tai – BERGMai Tai2.50129won+1936248
16.08.26MOUZ – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.21143lost-1436054
15.08.26Noir Verse – ex-Sashi AcademyNoir Verse1.94131won+1236197
15.08.26Misa – Mai TaiMai Tai2.06145lost-1456074
14.08.26Lavked – BASEMENT BOYSLavked2.39127won+1786220
14.08.26Just Players – ENCEENCE1.95116won+1116042
14.08.26TYLOO – Lynn VisionLynn Vision1.98106won+1045931
14.08.26Pugdesonesto – ALKAPugdesonesto2.09118lost-1185827
13.08.26BERG – Endless JourneyBERG2.16106won+1225945
12.08.26Endless Journey – HAVUHAVU2.6091won+1465823
12.08.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – LegacyNinjas in Pyjamas1.93101lost-1015677
10.08.26Ground Zero – MindfreakMindfreak2.13112lost-1125778
09.08.26HOTU – Inner CircleHOTU2.00102won+1025891
09.08.26Virtus.pro – SashiSashi2.1791won+1075789
08.08.26ALKA – paiN AcademypaiN Academy1.99102lost-1025681
08.08.26Butterfly – CYBERSHOKECYBERSHOKE2.0592won+975783
08.08.26METANOIA Wolves – IsurusMETANOIA Wolves2.78102lost-1025687
08.08.26Vael – OGVael1.91113lost-1135789
08.08.26Dark Tigre – SINNERSSINNERS2.10102won+1135902
08.08.26Imperial – GalorysGalorys2.04114lost-1145789
07.08.26Spirit HU – NRGSpirit HU2.48126lost-1265903
07.08.26Galactik rebels – lafoxGalactik rebels1.90116won+1046029
07.08.26HOTU – Galactik rebelsGalactik rebels2.35129lost-1295925
06.08.26paiN Academy – MEIA NOITEpaiN Academy1.94118won+1106054
05.08.26Liquid – fnaticLiquid2.47103won+1515943
05.08.261win – INOX Division1win2.2191won+1115793
05.08.26NAVI Junior – MAYBENAVI Junior2.0683won+885682
04.08.26Grêmio – paiN AcademyGrêmio1.9276won+705594
04.08.26Yawara – ex-GUARAex-GUARA1.8984lost-845524
03.08.26los kogutos – BASEMENT BOYSlos kogutos2.1693lost-935609
03.08.26Johnny Speeds – MetizportJohnny Speeds1.9286won+795702
03.08.26Isurus – ODDIK AcademyODDIK Academy2.1995lost-955623
03.08.26MOUZ NXT – MisaMOUZ NXT1.9387won+815718
03.08.26Mindfreak – FURYMindfreak1.9597lost-975637
03.08.26Voca – NRGNRG1.9788won+855734
02.08.26Bushido Wildcats – Fire FluxBushido Wildcats1.9980won+795649
02.08.26GenOne – CYBERSHOKECYBERSHOKE2.3289lost-895570
02.08.26Mai Tai – EnjoyMai Tai2.6099lost-995659
02.08.269INE – BRUTE9INE2.61110lost-1105758
01.08.26Black Phoenix – Just PlayersBlack Phoenix2.03100won+1025868
01.08.26atputies – The Last Resortatputies2.45111lost-1115765
01.08.26JiJieHao – GenOneJiJieHao2.62123lost-1235876
01.08.26DEPO – RayRayDEPO2.00112won+1126000
01.08.26LP – BESTIABESTIA2.21100won+1215888
31.07.26CYBERSHOKE – STATECYBERSHOKE2.04553won+5765767
31.07.26ROUNDS – TrainwrecksROUNDS1.98614lost-6145191
31.07.26HOTU – G2 AresG2 Ares2.67526won+8805806
31.07.26ex-RUSTEC – ex-MANAex-MANA2.44585lost-5854926
31.07.26INFINITE – SPARTASPARTA2.18523won+6155510
31.07.26regain – Chicken Coopregain2.22466won+5674895
30.07.26aimclub – Spirit AcademySpirit Academy1.94518lost-5184327
30.07.26Just Players – Inner Circle AcademyInner Circle Academy2.21576lost-5764846
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.