?

Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-1185u
ROI
-10.8%
win rate
44%
bets
1103
drawdown
117.9%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+0u
period 6profit withdrawn+0u
period 5profit withdrawn+0u
period 4profit withdrawn+0u
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2top-up-1000u
period 1top-up-185u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale43645%-235-1.3%67.5%Select
Flat (10 units)110344%-1185-10.8%117.9%Select
1% of bankroll554643%-3079-8.1%300.7%Select
2% of bankroll554643%-4521-8.1%428.2%Select
5% of bankroll554643%-6235-9%540.1%Select
10% of bankroll554643%-6930-10.2%522.1%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1103, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
29.05.26HAVU – aAaaAa2.126lost-6-185
29.05.26Nemiga – ex-RUBYex-RUBY2.1210lost-10-180
29.05.26Rune Eaters – DNKRune Eaters2.127won+8-170
29.05.26Omega – Dark MoonDark Moon2.1410lost-10-178
29.05.26HOTU – PCIFICPCIFIC2.0010lost-10-168
29.05.26DEPO – Game PointGame Point2.0310lost-10-158
29.05.26TNC – Young NinjasYoung Ninjas2.5110won+15-148
29.05.26M80 – VocaM802.2010won+12-163
29.05.26GameHunters – FluxoGameHunters1.9910lost-10-175
29.05.26ShindeN – ImperialShindeN2.0710won+11-165
29.05.26Bounty Hunters – BlackBeltBlackBelt2.5710lost-10-176
28.05.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – SharksNinjas in Pyjamas2.179won+11-166
28.05.26TNC – Young NinjasYoung Ninjas2.3410lost-10-176
28.05.26ARCRED – Virtus.proVirtus.pro1.8910won+9-166
28.05.26magic – FaZeFaZe2.1110lost-10-175
28.05.26WW – ex-RUBYWW2.548won+12-165
28.05.26KOLESIE – ex-Zero Tenacityex-Zero Tenacity2.124won+4-178
28.05.26BESTIA – GalorysBESTIA2.0410lost-10-182
28.05.26Phantom – AtreidesPhantom2.0010lost-10-172
28.05.26Betclic – Eternal FireBetclic2.5510lost-10-162
28.05.26Nemesis – TDKNemesis1.9710lost-10-152
28.05.26Johnny Speeds – OramondJohnny Speeds1.9510lost-10-142
28.05.26Nuclear TigeRES – K27K272.4010lost-10-132
28.05.261win – AM1win2.0410lost-10-122
28.05.26Young Ninjas – HonvédYoung Ninjas1.9710won+10-112
28.05.2625 cents – LP25 cents2.6210lost-10-121
28.05.26KOLESIE – GenOneKOLESIE2.1910won+12-111
28.05.26HEROIC Academy – aAaHEROIC Academy1.9010won+9-123
28.05.26illwill – fnaticillwill2.0210lost-10-132
28.05.26HEROIC – 9zHEROIC2.1810lost-10-122
28.05.26Enjoy – brazylijski luzbrazylijski luz1.9210lost-10-112
28.05.26NEW VISION – G2 AresNEW VISION2.1010lost-10-102
28.05.26Young Ninjas – WAZABIWAZABI2.0310won+10-92
28.05.26TYLOO – SemperFiSemperFi2.2610lost-10-103
28.05.26K27 – Virtus.proK272.1610lost-10-93
28.05.26ex-RUBY – OmegaOmega2.5310won+15-83
28.05.26Oramond – EntropyEntropy2.0110lost-10-98
28.05.26Tricked – Just PlayersTricked2.0210lost-10-88
28.05.26Hashiras – MisaHashiras1.8910lost-10-78
28.05.26aAa – UNiTYaAa2.2110lost-10-68
28.05.26Gentle Mates – GenOneGentle Mates2.3410won+13-58
28.05.26TNC – HonvédHonvéd2.1710lost-10-71
28.05.26Vexar – DripmenDripmen2.1410lost-10-61
28.05.26brazylijski luz – Young NinjasYoung Ninjas2.1610won+12-51
28.05.263DMAX – Alliance3DMAX2.0910lost-10-63
28.05.26Ursa – OramondUrsa2.1810won+12-53
28.05.26Nuclear TigeRES – ARCREDARCRED2.1110won+11-65
28.05.26Acend – Just PlayersAcend1.9710lost-10-76
28.05.26FOKUS – UrsaUrsa2.2110lost-10-66
28.05.26Betclic – GenOneBetclic2.4910lost-10-56
28.05.26Phantom – TNCPhantom1.9410lost-10-46
28.05.26Project 91 – WAZABIProject 912.1710won+12-36
28.05.26INOX Division – ex-Zero Tenacityex-Zero Tenacity2.3910lost-10-47
28.05.26Chicken Coop – VocaChicken Coop2.0410lost-10-37
28.05.26Fluxo – BlackBeltFluxo2.1010won+11-27
27.05.26Young Ninjas – Project 91Project 912.0110lost-10-38
27.05.26Bounty Hunters – GameHuntersGameHunters3.2510won+22-28
27.05.26BET-M – Virtus.proBET-M2.0510lost-10-51
27.05.26ex-RUBY – ASTRALASTRAL2.3410lost-10-41
27.05.26Eternal Fire – fnaticfnatic2.0310lost-10-31
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.