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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-570u
ROI
-10.4%
win rate
42%
bets
547
drawdown
64.9%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-18u
period 6top-up-293u
period 5profit withdrawn+39u
period 4top-up-98u
period 3top-up-30u
period 2top-up-112u
period 1top-up-59u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll54742%-545-10.7%61.8%Select
Flat (10 units)54742%-570-10.4%64.9%Selected
2% of bankroll54742%-1046-10.9%117.7%Select
Martingale5137%-1150-34.2%114.2%Select
5% of bankroll54742%-2340-11.4%257.8%Select
10% of bankroll54742%-4037-11.6%428.4%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 547, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26FORZE Reload – LFO 10LFO 102.6410lost-10430
14.10.26fnatic – HOTUfnatic2.0310won+10440
14.10.26PCIFIC – RyvexPCIFIC1.9210won+9430
14.10.26fnatic – SashiSashi2.9810lost-10421
14.10.26GenOne – 666666662.4110won+14431
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.1110lost-10417
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.1110lost-10427
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.4510lost-10437
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.6110lost-10447
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.1210won+21457
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.4510won+15435
11.10.26Just Players – MisaMisa2.5510lost-10421
10.10.26WBT Academy – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners2.1010won+11431
10.10.26Desi Boyz – EMPIREEMPIRE1.9410won+9420
10.10.26Grêmio – BORRACHEIROSGrêmio1.9810lost-10411
09.10.26Misa – 666666662.0710won+11421
09.10.26Azuolas – EnjoyAzuolas2.8910won+19410
09.10.26Black Phoenix – LeoLeo2.0510lost-10391
09.10.26Villainous – Reign AboveVillainous2.2010won+12401
08.10.26Saint Sinners – mellrenSaint Sinners2.5410won+15389
08.10.26Betclic – PRIVATEPRIVATE2.0710won+11373
08.10.26megoshort – Fire Fluxmegoshort2.5610lost-10363
08.10.26bLight blue – BORING PLAYERSbLight blue1.9410lost-10373
08.10.26The Last Resort – PrivateerPrivateer2.8110won+18383
08.10.26METANOIA Wolves – LPMETANOIA Wolves3.1310lost-10365
07.10.26Famalicão – Lazer CatsFamalicão2.5510lost-10375
07.10.26RBLS – FamalicãoFamalicão2.4010lost-10385
07.10.26Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTECIberian Soul2.4010won+14395
07.10.26LFO 10 – MOUZ NXTMOUZ NXT2.3110won+13381
07.10.26Vexar – Saint SinnersSaint Sinners2.2910won+13368
07.10.26OG – SINQUSINQU2.8510lost-10355
07.10.26OG – Falcons ForceFalcons Force2.3810won+14365
07.10.26OG – Orion WanderersOrion Wanderers2.3210lost-10351
07.10.26benched gods – Banda ChuyaBanda Chuya2.1910lost-10361
06.10.26FURIA – AuroraFURIA1.9710lost-10371
06.10.26G2 – PARIVISIONPARIVISION2.4810won+15381
05.10.26ShindeN – G2ShindeN1.9310lost-10366
03.10.26Aurora – 9z9z2.2710lost-10376
03.10.26regain – LAGregain2.4110lost-10386
02.10.26Alliance – NemigaAlliance3.4510lost-10396
02.10.26FOKUS – BBLBBL2.0910won+11406
02.10.26BC.Game – SashiSashi2.1210lost-10395
02.10.26SportsBetExpert – XEPTXEPT3.3010lost-10405
02.10.26Bounty Hunters – MEIA NOITEMEIA NOITE2.2310lost-10415
02.10.26Voca – SashiSashi2.2710lost-10425
02.10.26Fire Flux – benched godsbenched gods2.1510lost-10435
02.10.26BBL – SportsBetExpertBBL3.0210won+20445
02.10.26Astralis – FaZeAstralis1.9410won+9425
02.10.261337 – NEXVOID13372.4410lost-10416
01.10.26FaZe – NemigaFaZe3.9810lost-10426
01.10.26EAC – ex-Zero TenacityEAC2.7110won+17436
01.10.26Lavked – HYPERSPIRITHYPERSPIRIT1.9710lost-10419
01.10.26Astralis – AllianceAstralis2.0810lost-10429
01.10.26ex-ODDIK – Miraex-ODDIK2.2910lost-10439
30.09.26Leo – mellrenLeo2.1510lost-10449
29.09.26MASONIC – EnjoyMASONIC2.4010won+14459
29.09.26ARCRED – Rune EatersARCRED1.9710won+10445
29.09.26WW – ARCREDARCRED2.0710won+11435
28.09.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – GamerLegionNinjas in Pyjamas1.9010won+9424
28.09.26Marsborne – FarmVilleFarmVille2.8410lost-10415
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.