Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-3062u
ROI
-9.7%
win rate
42%
bets
543
drawdown
408.7%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
10% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7profit withdrawn+1004u
period 6top-up-964u
period 5top-up-308u
period 4top-up-745u
period 3top-up-624u
period 2top-up-902u
period 1top-up-523u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 543 | 42% | -496 | -9.7% | 62.2% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 543 | 42% | -524 | -9.6% | 65.5% | Select |
| Martingale | 51 | 33% | -927 | -33.3% | 93.6% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 543 | 42% | -937 | -9.7% | 118.2% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 543 | 42% | -1974 | -9.7% | 255.6% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 543 | 42% | -3062 | -9.7% | 408.7% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 543, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | Gothic – Lavked | Lavked | 2.05 | 181 | won | +191 | -2062 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | Omega | 2.11 | 201 | lost | -201 | -2253 |
| 13.10.26 | 100 Thieves – JiJieHao | JiJieHao | 1.99 | 224 | lost | -224 | -2052 |
| 12.10.26 | Sangal – Betclic | Betclic | 2.45 | 249 | lost | -249 | -1828 |
| 12.10.26 | BORRACHEIROS – Bounty Hunters | BORRACHEIROS | 2.09 | 276 | lost | -276 | -1580 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | DENDELE | 3.12 | 228 | won | +483 | -1303 |
| 11.10.26 | Nuclear TigeRES – Just Players | Just Players | 1.97 | 253 | lost | -253 | -1786 |
| 11.10.26 | benched gods – Illyrians | Illyrians | 1.92 | 232 | won | +213 | -1533 |
| 10.10.26 | WBT Academy – Saint Sinners | Saint Sinners | 2.10 | 209 | won | +229 | -1746 |
| 10.10.26 | Club 333 – DETONATE | DETONATE | 2.01 | 190 | won | +192 | -1975 |
| 10.10.26 | ALKA – MEIA NOITE | MEIA NOITE | 2.27 | 168 | won | +213 | -2168 |
| 09.10.26 | Misa – 6666 | 6666 | 2.07 | 152 | won | +163 | -2381 |
| 09.10.26 | Azuolas – Enjoy | Azuolas | 2.89 | 128 | won | +242 | -2544 |
| 09.10.26 | Black Phoenix – Leo | Leo | 2.05 | 142 | lost | -142 | -2786 |
| 09.10.26 | New Legends – Wanted Goons | Wanted Goons | 2.35 | 125 | won | +169 | -2644 |
| 08.10.26 | Leo – Privateer | Privateer | 3.78 | 139 | lost | -139 | -2813 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | PRIVATE | 2.07 | 126 | won | +134 | -2673 |
| 08.10.26 | megoshort – Fire Flux | megoshort | 2.56 | 140 | lost | -140 | -2808 |
| 08.10.26 | Alter Ego – Kaleido | Kaleido | 2.20 | 125 | won | +150 | -2668 |
| 08.10.26 | The Last Resort – Privateer | Privateer | 2.81 | 106 | won | +191 | -2818 |
| 08.10.26 | BESTIA Academy – ALKA | ALKA | 1.90 | 97 | won | +87 | -3009 |
| 07.10.26 | Famalicão – Lazer Cats | Famalicão | 2.55 | 108 | lost | -108 | -3096 |
| 07.10.26 | Sangal – SAW | SAW | 2.09 | 120 | lost | -120 | -2989 |
| 07.10.26 | Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTEC | Iberian Soul | 2.40 | 105 | won | +147 | -2869 |
| 07.10.26 | Vexar – Privateer | Privateer | 3.36 | 85 | won | +201 | -3016 |
| 07.10.26 | Vexar – Saint Sinners | Saint Sinners | 2.29 | 75 | won | +97 | -3216 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – SINQU | SINQU | 2.85 | 84 | lost | -84 | -3313 |
| 07.10.26 | G2 Ares – SINQU | SINQU | 2.54 | 93 | lost | -93 | -3230 |
| 07.10.26 | PURE – SINQU | SINQU | 2.45 | 103 | lost | -103 | -3137 |
| 07.10.26 | Gothic – LPH | Gothic | 2.29 | 91 | won | +118 | -3033 |
| 06.10.26 | FURIA – Aurora | FURIA | 1.97 | 102 | lost | -102 | -3151 |
| 06.10.26 | Spirit – 1win | 1win | 2.41 | 89 | won | +125 | -3050 |
| 05.10.26 | PARIVISION – FURIA | PARIVISION | 2.32 | 99 | lost | -99 | -3175 |
| 03.10.26 | NT – Lazer Cats | NT | 2.15 | 89 | won | +102 | -3076 |
| 03.10.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.41 | 99 | lost | -99 | -3178 |
| 02.10.26 | Alliance – Nemiga | Alliance | 3.45 | 110 | lost | -110 | -3080 |
| 02.10.26 | FOKUS – BBL | BBL | 2.09 | 99 | won | +108 | -2970 |
| 02.10.26 | Voca – Prestige | Prestige | 2.64 | 110 | lost | -110 | -3078 |
| 02.10.26 | SportsBetExpert – XEPT | XEPT | 3.30 | 122 | lost | -122 | -2968 |
| 02.10.26 | Nexus – 6yuBoJlbl | 6yuBoJlbl | 2.24 | 108 | won | +135 | -2847 |
| 02.10.26 | Voca – Sashi | Sashi | 2.27 | 120 | lost | -120 | -2981 |
| 02.10.26 | UNiTY – aimclub | aimclub | 2.04 | 134 | lost | -134 | -2861 |
| 02.10.26 | BBL – SportsBetExpert | BBL | 3.02 | 111 | won | +225 | -2727 |
| 02.10.26 | Astralis – FaZe | Astralis | 1.94 | 102 | won | +95 | -2952 |
| 02.10.26 | 1337 – NEXVOID | 1337 | 2.44 | 113 | lost | -113 | -3047 |
| 01.10.26 | FaZe – Nemiga | FaZe | 3.98 | 126 | lost | -126 | -2934 |
| 01.10.26 | EAC – ex-Zero Tenacity | EAC | 2.71 | 107 | won | +184 | -2808 |
| 01.10.26 | Yawara – BORRACHEIROS | Yawara | 1.91 | 98 | won | +89 | -2992 |
| 01.10.26 | SINQU – Famalicão | Famalicão | 1.94 | 90 | won | +85 | -3081 |
| 01.10.26 | ex-ODDIK – Mira | ex-ODDIK | 2.29 | 100 | lost | -100 | -3166 |
| 30.09.26 | Leo – mellren | Leo | 2.15 | 4 | lost | -4 | -3066 |
| 29.09.26 | MAYBE – Illyrians | MAYBE | 2.40 | 4 | won | +5 | -3062 |
| 29.09.26 | WW – DNK | DNK | 2.24 | 3 | won | +4 | -3067 |
| 29.09.26 | Rune Eaters – DNK | DNK | 2.17 | 3 | lost | -3 | -3071 |
| 28.09.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – GamerLegion | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.90 | 3 | won | +3 | -3067 |
| 28.09.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.21 | 4 | lost | -4 | -3070 |
| 28.09.26 | Marsborne – FarmVille | FarmVille | 2.84 | 4 | lost | -4 | -3066 |
| 28.09.26 | Galorys – Procyon | Procyon | 2.77 | 3 | won | +6 | -3063 |
| 27.09.26 | KUUSAMO – Noir Verse | KUUSAMO | 1.96 | 4 | lost | -4 | -3068 |
| 27.09.26 | Nemiga – Color | Color | 2.30 | 4 | lost | -4 | -3065 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.