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Model underdog (Elo)

CSCS210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-6930u
ROI
-10.2%
win rate
43%
bets
5546
drawdown
522.1%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

payments
Stake size

10% of bankroll

restart_alt
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

insights
Odds

No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-1000u
period 6top-up-1000u
period 5top-up-1000u
period 4top-up-986u
period 3top-up-998u
period 2top-up-1000u
period 1top-up-945u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale43645%-235-1.3%67.5%Select
Flat (10 units)110344%-1185-10.8%117.9%Select
1% of bankroll554643%-3079-8.1%300.7%Select
2% of bankroll554643%-4521-8.1%428.2%Select
5% of bankroll554643%-6235-9%540.1%Select
10% of bankroll554643%-6930-10.2%522.1%Select
Quarter Kelly00%+0+0%0%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 5546, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
14.10.26Astralis – SashiSashi2.420lost-0-5930
14.10.26MARKandLARRY – RoosterMARKandLARRY2.190lost-0-5930
14.10.269z – Aurora9z2.670won+0-5930
14.10.26Enjoy – B8 AcademyB8 Academy1.900lost-0-5930
14.10.26Gothic – LavkedLavked2.050won+0-5930
14.10.26Zomblers – Overtake SectorZomblers2.210lost-0-5930
14.10.26your end – SUKEBANyour end2.090won+0-5930
14.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – Galorysex-Keyd Stars2.780lost-0-5930
13.10.26Grêmio – LOS NINOSGrêmio2.010lost-0-5930
13.10.26GenOne – ButterflyButterfly2.290won+0-5930
13.10.26UPGRADE – OmegaOmega2.110lost-0-5930
13.10.26Black Phoenix – 666666662.900lost-0-5930
13.10.26Liquid – JiJieHaoLiquid1.930won+0-5930
13.10.26Walczaki – Saint SinnersWalczaki2.450lost-0-5930
13.10.26JiJieHao – BBLBBL2.160lost-0-5930
13.10.26100 Thieves – LiquidLiquid2.040lost-0-5930
13.10.26QUINTESSÊNCIA – MartiansMartians1.900lost-0-5930
13.10.26Just Swing – Alter EgoJust Swing2.300lost-0-5930
13.10.26Bushido Wildcats – IllyriansIllyrians2.040won+0-5929
13.10.26100 Thieves – JiJieHaoJiJieHao1.990lost-0-5930
13.10.26Liquid – BBLBBL2.110lost-0-5929
13.10.26Fruju – RoosterFruju2.100lost-0-5929
13.10.26BAKS – Spirit AcademyBAKS2.240won+0-5929
13.10.26Chicken Coop – ZomblersChicken Coop1.960won+0-5929
13.10.26Overtake Sector – Iowa StormboarIowa Stormboar1.950lost-0-5929
13.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – ex-RUSTECex-RUSTEC2.120won+0-5929
13.10.26ex-Keyd Stars – LPex-Keyd Stars2.180lost-0-5929
13.10.26Galorys – Bounty HuntersBounty Hunters2.260lost-0-5929
12.10.26ex-RUSTEC – The Golden HordeThe Golden Horde2.350lost-0-5929
12.10.266666 – megoshortmegoshort2.010lost-0-5929
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.690lost-0-5929
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalInner Circle1.950lost-0-5929
12.10.26GenOne – The Golden HordeThe Golden Horde2.710won+0-5929
12.10.26SAW Youngsters – IllyriansSAW Youngsters2.090lost-0-5929
12.10.26Nordic Partners – ex-RUSTECNordic Partners2.680lost-0-5929
12.10.26Nuclear TigeRES – XIXI3.180lost-0-5929
12.10.26PRIVATE – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds2.180won+0-5929
12.10.26Sangal – BetclicBetclic2.450lost-0-5929
12.10.26Inner Circle – Ninjas in PyjamasInner Circle1.990lost-0-5929
12.10.26Lynn Vision – Just SwingJust Swing2.040lost-0-5929
12.10.26Alter Ego – Chinggis WarriorsAlter Ego2.070won+0-5929
12.10.26Fire Flux – mellrenmellren2.020won+0-5929
12.10.26Ninjas in Pyjamas – BetclicBetclic2.540lost-0-5929
12.10.26Inner Circle – SangalInner Circle1.970won+0-5929
12.10.26Rooster – LFO 8LFO 82.040lost-0-5929
12.10.26Fruju – MARKandLARRYMARKandLARRY2.060won+0-5929
12.10.26Enjoy – Saint SinnersEnjoy1.960lost-0-5929
12.10.26Overtake Sector – regainOvertake Sector1.960won+0-5929
12.10.26DETONATE – Iowa StormboarDETONATE2.180lost-0-5929
12.10.26Wildcard – DENDELEWildcard1.900won+0-5929
12.10.26Yawara – GalorysYawara2.610lost-0-5929
12.10.26BORRACHEIROS – Bounty HuntersBORRACHEIROS2.090lost-0-5929
11.10.26DENDELE – ImperialDENDELE3.120won+0-5929
11.10.26NT – Johnny SpeedsJohnny Speeds1.990won+0-5929
11.10.26DIVINITY – ex-RUSTECDIVINITY2.400lost-0-5929
11.10.26BET-M – PRIVATEPRIVATE1.910won+0-5929
11.10.26antidaun – Saint Sinnersantidaun1.970lost-0-5929
11.10.26XI – ASTRALXI2.200won+0-5929
11.10.26mellren – LavkedLavked2.640lost-0-5929
11.10.26acidhouze – Inner Circle Academyacidhouze2.450won+0-5929
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.