Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-1037u
ROI
-10.7%
win rate
42%
bets
547
drawdown
105.3%
payouts
7
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
2% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
No real historical CS2 odds exist, so they are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin — this is a simulation.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 7top-up-100u
period 6top-up-444u
period 5profit withdrawn+102u
period 4top-up-236u
period 3top-up-103u
period 2top-up-141u
period 1top-up-115u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 547 | 42% | -539 | -10.5% | 55.6% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 547 | 42% | -560 | -10.2% | 57.8% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 547 | 42% | -1037 | -10.7% | 105.3% | Select |
| Martingale | 45 | 42% | -1052 | -45.4% | 104.5% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 547 | 42% | -2334 | -11.2% | 225.2% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 547 | 42% | -4038 | -11.6% | 358.2% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 547, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | fnatic – HOTU | fnatic | 2.03 | 18 | won | +18 | -37 |
| 14.10.26 | BET-M – FORZE Reload | BET-M | 2.13 | 18 | lost | -18 | -55 |
| 14.10.26 | fnatic – Sashi | Sashi | 2.98 | 18 | lost | -18 | -37 |
| 14.10.26 | Lynn Vision – Alter Ego | Lynn Vision | 2.03 | 18 | won | +19 | -19 |
| 14.10.26 | Enjoy – B8 Academy | B8 Academy | 1.90 | 18 | lost | -18 | -37 |
| 13.10.26 | UPGRADE – Omega | Omega | 2.11 | 19 | lost | -19 | -19 |
| 13.10.26 | Liquid – BBL | BBL | 2.11 | 19 | lost | -19 | 0 |
| 12.10.26 | Sangal – Betclic | Betclic | 2.45 | 19 | lost | -19 | 19 |
| 12.10.26 | BORRACHEIROS – Bounty Hunters | BORRACHEIROS | 2.09 | 20 | lost | -20 | 39 |
| 11.10.26 | DENDELE – Imperial | DENDELE | 3.12 | 19 | won | +40 | 59 |
| 11.10.26 | acidhouze – Inner Circle Academy | acidhouze | 2.45 | 19 | won | +27 | 18 |
| 11.10.26 | benched gods – Illyrians | Illyrians | 1.92 | 18 | won | +17 | -9 |
| 10.10.26 | Abyssal – Mindfreak | Mindfreak | 2.51 | 19 | lost | -19 | -26 |
| 10.10.26 | regain – Villainous | Villainous | 2.26 | 19 | lost | -19 | -7 |
| 10.10.26 | Isurus – Procyon | Isurus | 2.08 | 19 | lost | -19 | 12 |
| 09.10.26 | WBT Academy – SAW Youngsters | SAW Youngsters | 2.47 | 19 | won | +28 | 31 |
| 09.10.26 | Azuolas – Enjoy | Azuolas | 2.89 | 18 | won | +34 | 4 |
| 09.10.26 | Black Phoenix – Leo | Leo | 2.05 | 18 | lost | -18 | -31 |
| 09.10.26 | Chicken Coop – DETONATE | DETONATE | 1.97 | 19 | lost | -19 | -12 |
| 08.10.26 | Leo – Privateer | Privateer | 3.78 | 19 | lost | -19 | 7 |
| 08.10.26 | Betclic – PRIVATE | PRIVATE | 2.07 | 19 | won | +20 | 26 |
| 08.10.26 | megoshort – Fire Flux | megoshort | 2.56 | 19 | lost | -19 | 6 |
| 08.10.26 | Alter Ego – Kaleido | Kaleido | 2.20 | 19 | won | +23 | 25 |
| 08.10.26 | BERG – mellren | BERG | 3.32 | 19 | lost | -19 | 3 |
| 08.10.26 | Bounty Hunters – Procyon | Procyon | 1.96 | 20 | lost | -20 | 22 |
| 07.10.26 | Famalicão – Lazer Cats | Famalicão | 2.55 | 20 | lost | -20 | 41 |
| 07.10.26 | RBLS – Famalicão | Famalicão | 2.40 | 20 | lost | -20 | 61 |
| 07.10.26 | Iberian Soul – ex-RUSTEC | Iberian Soul | 2.40 | 20 | won | +28 | 82 |
| 07.10.26 | Revise – Banda Chuya | Banda Chuya | 2.31 | 19 | won | +25 | 54 |
| 07.10.26 | The KnockoutX – The Huns | The KnockoutX | 2.11 | 19 | won | +21 | 29 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – SINQU | SINQU | 2.85 | 19 | lost | -19 | 8 |
| 07.10.26 | OG – Falcons Force | Falcons Force | 2.38 | 19 | won | +26 | 27 |
| 07.10.26 | PURE – SINQU | SINQU | 2.45 | 19 | lost | -19 | 1 |
| 07.10.26 | Gothic – LPH | Gothic | 2.29 | 19 | won | +24 | 20 |
| 06.10.26 | FURIA – Aurora | FURIA | 1.97 | 19 | lost | -19 | -4 |
| 06.10.26 | Spirit – 1win | 1win | 2.41 | 19 | won | +26 | 15 |
| 05.10.26 | ShindeN – G2 | ShindeN | 1.93 | 19 | lost | -19 | -11 |
| 03.10.26 | Aurora – 9z | 9z | 2.27 | 19 | lost | -19 | 8 |
| 03.10.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.41 | 20 | lost | -20 | 27 |
| 02.10.26 | Alliance – Nemiga | Alliance | 3.45 | 20 | lost | -20 | 47 |
| 02.10.26 | Eternal Fire – BASEMENT BOYS | BASEMENT BOYS | 2.52 | 20 | lost | -20 | 67 |
| 02.10.26 | Voca – Prestige | Prestige | 2.64 | 21 | lost | -21 | 87 |
| 02.10.26 | SportsBetExpert – XEPT | XEPT | 3.30 | 21 | lost | -21 | 108 |
| 02.10.26 | Nexus – 6yuBoJlbl | 6yuBoJlbl | 2.24 | 21 | won | +26 | 130 |
| 02.10.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – SportsBetExpert | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2.56 | 20 | won | +31 | 104 |
| 02.10.26 | UNiTY – aimclub | aimclub | 2.04 | 21 | lost | -21 | 72 |
| 02.10.26 | BBL – SportsBetExpert | BBL | 3.02 | 20 | won | +40 | 93 |
| 02.10.26 | Astralis – FaZe | Astralis | 1.94 | 19 | won | +18 | 53 |
| 02.10.26 | 1337 – NEXVOID | 1337 | 2.44 | 20 | lost | -20 | 35 |
| 01.10.26 | FaZe – Nemiga | FaZe | 3.98 | 20 | lost | -20 | 55 |
| 01.10.26 | EAC – ex-Zero Tenacity | EAC | 2.71 | 20 | won | +33 | 75 |
| 01.10.26 | HOTU – Nemesis | Nemesis | 1.90 | 19 | won | +17 | 41 |
| 01.10.26 | SAW – NT | NT | 2.32 | 20 | lost | -20 | 24 |
| 01.10.26 | ex-ODDIK – Mira | ex-ODDIK | 2.29 | 20 | lost | -20 | 44 |
| 30.09.26 | EVO Elite – Magnum | EVO Elite | 1.91 | 11 | lost | -11 | 64 |
| 29.09.26 | MASONIC – Enjoy | MASONIC | 2.40 | 11 | won | +15 | 75 |
| 29.09.26 | WW – DNK | DNK | 2.24 | 11 | won | +13 | 60 |
| 29.09.26 | Rune Eaters – DNK | DNK | 2.17 | 11 | lost | -11 | 46 |
| 28.09.26 | Ninjas in Pyjamas – GamerLegion | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 1.90 | 11 | won | +10 | 57 |
| 28.09.26 | regain – LAG | regain | 2.21 | 11 | lost | -11 | 47 |
Simulation: no real historical CS2 odds exist, so odds are modelled from Elo with a bookmaker margin. The numbers illustrate strategy behaviour, not real returns. Not investment advice.